Friday, November 09, 2012

2008 and 2012 Election Vote Totals by Race

I spent a few hours trying to figure out how many white and nonwhite votes went to each candidate. It was challenging because I could not find the same types of statistics online for 2008 and 2012. I list my sources after the table below.  The key results are in the second table from the bottom (change 2008 to 2012 (votes / 10^6)). Romney received 2.2 million fewer white votes than McCain, and surprisingly gained 0.5 million (i.e. 500,000) nonwhite votes.  Obama lost 7.5 million white votes (a large percentage of the total number of whites voting for him) and, surprisingly, lost 0.79 million nonwhite votes.  Some of this is counter-intuitive, especially how Obama lost nonwhite votes and Romney gained nonwhite votes.  I may refine or make corrections to the table in the next few days. If any readers find errors I can correct them.

All of the green cell values come from online sources, and the orange cell values are determined by formulas.

The 2008 vote totals come from the Federal Election Commission.

The 2008 74% contribution of whites to total vote comes from National Review.

The 2008 candidate % of white vote (upper right corner) come from Daily Mail.

The total 2012 votes for Romney and Obama (58.2 and 61.2) come from Huffington Post.

The 2012 white % contributions to candidate totals (88% and 56%) come from Slate.

Finally, the number of "neither" votes for 2012 are taken to be the same as the "neither" 2008 values.  This is just an estimate that does not affect the overall net change in the last two tables.

Update: NBC Politics explains that it is too soon to tell how many votes there were in 2012. The total number of votes will likely increase by millions. This means that when all the votes are counted it is quite likely that Romney will end up having gotten more white votes in 2012 than McCain did in 2008. Obama's white vote total will likely still be down by millions, however.

American Renaissance has a new article with racial vote percentages for all presidential elections since 1992. Their numbers seem to be consistent with mine, but they give percentages while my table has both percentages and totals.